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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – four/ane/22

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Expert afternoon, folks! Welcome to the April 1 edition of my chat. This April fool is nonetheless recovering from having accidentally sent my mom'south birthday gift to my Brooklyn apartment instead of her Salt Lake City residence.

ii:03

Jay Jaffe: Only… that's about to change. I'll cover the Pollock/Kimbrel merchandise for Monday — had to come across information technology nigh xviii times before I was willing to concede it was real and not an Apr 1 conspiracy on the part of the industry'southward newsbreakers.

2:04	Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show…

two:05

Rachel: deGrom, how worried are you? Thanks!

2:05	Jay Jaffe: Shoulder? Worried.

2:06	Jay Jaffe: He's the best pitcher in baseball only that consistently loftier velo is going to take its toll on his arm one way or some other

2:07	South Side Life: Not that the White Sox weren't frontrunners in the AL Central already…but what'southward the ramifications of the Pollock merchandise?

2:x

Jay Jaffe: 50'll have more on this on Monday only it shores up an surface area of weakness at least somewhat, though Pollock doesn't have much experience in right field and Vaughn is projected to make some advances, and he'southward 1 of the guys losing playing time. The pitcher is the weaker for it, though that was a pretty pricey setup human to take effectually, and things never really jelled for Kimbrel in that role

two:10

Gord: Do you call back the Mariners should attempt and trade for some other starter like Manaea or Montas or should they ringlet with Matt Brash and his filthy slider?

two:12

Jay Jaffe: You lot tin can never have too much pitching, and counting on a guy who has topped out with half a season of Double-A to be a key contributor is more often than not folly. Either of those guys would be significant upgrades.

ii:13

Blake Bell (in Toronto): Hello Jay. Given the uptick in examining Dave Stieb's career, what's a path/timeline for Stieb to be considered for Cooperstown? Thx!

2:xv

Jay Jaffe: Assuming Stieb is in the Modern Baseball bucket, for players who made their greatest impact betwixt 1970–1987, he would be eligible for consideration to appear on the 2024 ballot, to exist voted upon in December 2023. That era is stacked, though, and by the traditional numbers, he's got a very uphill battle to get on that ballot.

2:16	Jay Jaffe: Speaking of Stieb and our common nemesis:

ii:16

Jay Jaffe: Watched Office 3 of @jon_bois' great Dave Stieb series, and in addition to getting to see the role virtually when he finally finished his long-sought no-hitter, I learned that Jack Morris was *an even bigger asshole* than I had previously believed. 1 Apr 2022

ii:17

Robert: Any players you are targeting far ahead of their ADP?

2:17	Jay Jaffe: I haven't played fantasy baseball in over a decade, haven't written almost it in almost that long. You're barking upwardly the wrong tree, I'chiliad agape.

2:18	ben simmons' jumper: is it but me or does the kimbrel for pollock swap seem to favor chw a lot?

2:19	Jay Jaffe: I think it's a good deal for both sides. LA gets to give more than at-bats to Lux, Taylor, and Muncy and takes 60-seventy innings away from their lesser relievers.

two:21

Jay Jaffe: as to why the Dodgers didn't only re-sign Jansen at that toll, well, now they've lowered the payroll and gained a draft pick, which — if y'all can distance yourself from the sentimental aspects of retaining Jansen — is a nice lilliputian maneuver, all else being equal (which it may non be).

two:21

Jay Jaffe: Again, more to come on Monday

2:21	Holding My Breath on deGrom: Should we as fans be distressing that umps being given mics to explicate replay calls was instituted at the aforementioned time that Joe West retired?

2:22	Jay Jaffe: Let us non expect gift horses in the mouth. Joe West has retired!!! And we're getting improved communication from umpires!!! Everybody wins until nosotros have to hear from Affections Hernandez.

2:23	Steve: Did you see the photograph that showed Citi Field's 2021 beer menu? Miller Loftier Life is listed equally a craft beer! Is the deGrom news some sort of karmic punishment?

two:23

Jay Jaffe: I strained my eyeballs rolling them at that one

2:24	Jay Jaffe: nice to see Radiant Squealer on the carte du jour there. Both of those hazy IPAs are in regular rotation at Casa Jaffe-Bridge.

2:25	Jay Jaffe: Too a big fan of Sloop'southward Juice Flop IPA

2:25	Ragbrai: What does 1B in Milwaukee look like at the offset and end of year. Does Huira take over eventually or does Telllez out play him?

2:27

Jay Jaffe: Hiura is deep in the tall grass right now and I wonder if he needs a change of scenery. Tellez, despite the mediocre numbers, hit the brawl hard terminal year and improved his results when he got less pull-happy. As assumptions go, I'one thousand picking the guy whose tendency pointer is pointing in the correct direction to take the job at the finish of the yr.

2:28	Guest: Who are some under-the-radar-ish RPs that might go studs in holds leagues?

ii:28

Jay Jaffe: Blake Treinen!

2:28	Jay Jaffe: Sorry, that'southward the extent of my fantasy advice today.

2:29

Corey: I believe all the noise virtually elevation prospects making opening days rosters is not really going to consequence in that many on opening day rosters, hunter greene all the same.  The incentives just have not changed that much.  I can't believe J-Rod, Stott, and Abrams volition make OD rosters, for example. I want to be incorrect.  Am I incorrect?

two:xxx

Jay Jaffe: I recall y'all're right, sadly (I'g not sad you lot're right — you accept the good sense to evidence up to a FanGraphs conversation, after all — I'm lamentable that the industry isn't doing plenty)

two:32

Jay Jaffe: the math is this: if you continue the guy downwardly long enough to game his clock and get an extra year earlier free bureau, there's really only a pocket-sized chance he claws that back by winning Rookie of the Year or placing second. Like, even in the best of circumstances, information technology's much less than a coin toss of a chance.

2:33	Jay Jaffe: I'yard not proverb all of those guys will be sent downwards to start the twelvemonth, mind you, just that this well-meaning facet of the CBA doesn't make it enough.

2:33	tz: Happy Birthday Mama Jaffe!!!

2:34	Jay Jaffe: Thank yous! It'south her 80th, and thankfully she's in good enough wellness to savour it (as is my male parent)

2:35	Bill: Julio is going to be a 5+ WAR player this year, isn't he?

2:36

Jay Jaffe: i remember 3-5 is more reasonable and obviously the total depends in part on playing time and when he's added to the roster. The talent is in that location for five+ simply expecting him to reach it at 21, without Triple-A experience, is a alpine lodge. Immediately hitting the ceiling is never the most likely outcome.

ii:36

Shave those damn sideburns!: Practice you view Ohtani as a college than average injury risk?

2:38

Jay Jaffe: Relative to the average pitcher? Absolutely, non simply considering of the loftier velocity only also the extra impact of batting. Even if his arm is perfectly sound, in that location exists a chance he could become hurt being hit by a pitch. I hate to think about things in those terms, simply as take chances evaluations become, that's where we're at

2:39	manlikefox: increased PA for Edwin Rios? Either as DH or RF? Having a healthy/proficient spring…

2:39	Jay Jaffe: Sure, he could be a beneficiary of the Pollock trade if his shoulder has healed

2:40	Paul M: Do you think Conforto signs before the typhoon?  He's withal a great LF merely it seems like everyone has forgotten him

2:43	Georgia: Gonna be in Williamsburg for the marathon side by side month. Got any food recos?

two:44

Jay Jaffe: I was thinking about this place today, all the same have never been BIRRIA LANDIA — The famous Birria spot at the Metropolitan/Lorimer cease. I liked the birria tacos I had last time … only these are unreal. The lemon's a corking touch. Just $3 a taco! This place is worth the hype and the long line. And only waited most 10 min. twenty Mar 2022

two:46

Jay Jaffe: I really don't go up to Due west'burg very often — can't recall the concluding meal I ate there b/c it was pre-pandemic — merely I am a large fan of Fette Sau (BBQ)

ii:47

Ragbrai: How does Atl OF play out earlier and after Acuna returns?

ii:49

Jay Jaffe: Ozuna-Duvall-Rosario/Heredia to start the year, so ideally Ozuna-Acuña-Duvall/Rosario, possibly with Acuña playing middle only part of the time.

2:50	B: Think Pujols hits 21 HRs this year?

2:50	Jay Jaffe: no. He won't become enough playing fourth dimension, nor should he.

2:53	Shave those damn sideburns!: Thinly veiled fantasy question: will Juan Soto go his counting stats or is he going to be Bonds lite with all the intentional walks?

2:56

Jay Jaffe: The IBB will cut into his counting stats a bit, but nosotros practise accept him forecast for 140 total walks (145 last year) in 672 PA, and withal getting to 36 HR and 113 RBI. In terms of cutting into his counting stats, I'd worry more than about the possibility he lands on the IL, which he's done annually for the terminal 3 years, maxing out at 151 games and 659 PA

2:56	Sad over Fishman: Practise you think the dodgers brand another move to shore upwardly their starting rotation? things look sparse after kershaw – and there are a lot questions over how many innings he tin can really give you

two:58

Jay Jaffe: The rotation appears to exist their biggest vulnerability. I suspect that in one case they get clarity on the B**** state of affairs (which assuming he's suspended for some length of time will requite them some breathing room payroll-wise) they will make a move.

2:58	Nate: Oh god, I was having a practiced 24-hour interval till you pointed out we'll have to mind to Angel Hernandez speak now. Haha

2:58	Jay Jaffe: i'm simply hither to pelting on everybody's parades, sorry!

2:59	Pat: Not only is Jack Morris an A'hole, only, he made a racist annotate confronting Asian'south during a circulate final year..on top of being a boring announcer..& yet, Tigers brought him back as a commentator anyway.

2:59	Jay Jaffe: Much moreso than when I was arguing confronting his Hall of Fame example, I am thoroughly convinced Jack Morris sucks as a human being.

iii:03

Votto Go Cheerio-Farewell-O: At present that the Reds aren't really contenders/are rebuilding, and given their desire to "lucifer payroll to resources" and given that he'due south a power-hit commodity who might help a contender, how would you rate the chances of Votto existence traded from 1 to 10? (Hypothetically speaking – this seems too terrible even for the Reds to do)

3:04	Jay Jaffe: Spitballing hither but the just way I could see it happening would exist if he specifically agrees to a deal to the Blue Jays so he tin try to reach a World Series while playing for a Canadian team.

3:04	Grant: What realistic options do yous call back the Giants accept in regards to trading for a new 3B?

3:07

Jay Jaffe: Longoria'south finger injury — surgery to repair a damaged ligament in his right index finger, specifically — is expected to continue him out for vi weeks. Teams by and large don't make large deals for something like that at the first of the season, and I suspect the Giants will gut information technology out with some combination of Flores, La Stella and Estrada there. They'll miss his defense more than than his bat, as all three of those guys projection to have higher wOBAs than he does.

iii:08

werthless: The royals are mashing baseballs this spring. How do you come across them allocating playing time betwixt vets (Dozier, Santana, etc) and the hoard of immature talent coming upwards? Is there a market for guys like Santana and Dozier?

three:08

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about both positions in my PPRs. I don't see either of those guys having much value in trade coming off such lousy seasons with the bat.

iii:ten

Guest: How much of a concern is Oneil Cruz'southward swing type, in terms of his potential susceptibility to strikeouts, for his longterm large league career?

3:13

Jay Jaffe: I'm not the prospect guy, just one reading prospect lists, but fifty-fifty with a 30 present/40 future hit tool via Eric Longenhagen, he'southward a 60-form prospect (occasional All-Star, at to the lowest degree). Baseball America has the hitting tool at l and the overall grade at 65 (perennial All-Star). So yeah, there's a bit of business organisation only not a ton because of the other tools

3:15	Robles: Victor Robles simply seems to go backwards as the Nats try to set up his poor choices in the outfield and his cleaved offense. Might an elderberry star like Nelson Cruz have an effect or does Robles need to become somewwhere new to start again?

iii:17

Jay Jaffe: Information technology couldn't hurt, and the Nationals take nothing but time to see if they tin can gear up him.

three:17

Sad Mariners Fan: How bad did Jerry blow the off flavour? We missed every FA bat that he was quoted maxim he wanted non just 1, but 2 of. He never got the 2d pitcher he wanted. Our only bullpen add together was the corpse of Sergio Romo. You lot guys don't even have the Chiliad's projected at .500 this year.. Talk me off the ledge please!

3:21

Jay Jaffe: Well, they did invest $115 million in the reigning AL Cy Young winner, traded for a big bat (Winker) and a very skilful multiposition regular (Frazier), and avoided blocking i of the peak positional prospects (Rodriguez). I think that's a pretty decent offseason, though perhaps another bullpen arm would be a good idea. It'due south non like Dipoto is likely to look at the roster on April 1 and say, "Yup, don't need to make another move 'til November."

three:22

FIP: Can we remove intentional walks and inside-the-park homeruns from FIP? Including them defeats the whole purpose of trying to isolate the pitcher'south skill from his environment

three:24

Jay Jaffe: I always used to summate FIP by removing IBB and calculation HBP, just really, it makes almost no difference. IPHRs are exceedingly rare enough to ignore in this context, too, and nigh all of them are well-struck assurance. The reality is that with FIP, ERA, and xERA you lot've got a lot of tools to evaluate the gap between actual and expected runs allowed, which is much better than relying upon just one of those.

iii:25

Georgia: How much of an advantage could Toronto stand to gain with most visiting teams presumably missing some players?  I know it'south difficult to know exactly without knowing who will exist out, but this feels like information technology's going to be a big bargain

3:29	Jay Jaffe: (the math was non correct)

three:31

Jay Jaffe: I bet Dan can model this with ZiPS, but it's not huge. If we assume that the drib is from an 8-win thespian to a replacement level one (and it won't be), times ane such bandy per team, times 10 games in Toronto for some AL E competitors… that's half a run per squad per intradivision game, max of well-nigh 5 runs per team, maybe a two-win swing in the division max? And probably closer to one win? Not nix.

3:34	Greg: Rank these bats for 2022 – Harrison Bader, Brandon Marsh, Josh Rojas.  thx!

3:35	Jay Jaffe: sticking only to bats, I'd go Bader, Rojas, Marsh (very close between the first two)

3:35	The 6ix: Which stars are unvaccinated and will therefore not be able to play in Toronto? Gauge seems similar one.

3:37	Jay Jaffe: The epoch of finding out, as far as Yankees fans are concerned, begins with their May 2-4 series in Toronto. Rangers, A'southward, Carmine Sox, Astros precede them on the schedule.

three:xl

Jay Jaffe: Nobody has a definitive listing of who is/isn't vaccinated but Anthony Rizzo was not, by his ain admission, last year. Likewise for the Red Sox's Chris Sale, while it's been reported that Xander Bogaerts hasn't had his shots. Aaron Judge has evaded the question. Trevor Story reportedly got vaccinated so he could complete the bargain with the Red Sox.

iii:41

Color Coordinator: Hello Jay. Thank you for the chat. Fuchsia or Teal?

three:41

Jay Jaffe: I'm not a big fan of teal for sports teams but I similar information technology for interior decoration!

3:43

Jay Jaffe: true story: i decided to move to NYC while driving a teal rental motorcar (Kia) that I absolutely hated; my insurance was paying for information technology after my machine was stolen in Boston while visiting my girlfriend (I lived in Providence at the time). I loathed the color and everything well-nigh the situation and wanted to alive somewhere that I didn't need a car. Moved to NYC 3 months later and i've never regretted it, but I've come around on the color.

iii:44

Ragbrai: Does seem to be more "closer by committee" situations than normal this year? Is that necessarily a bad thing?

3:45	Jay Jaffe: Injuries and hot easily tend to sort these things out mostly.

three:45

RJD: Remember the ASG should give ane actress spot to legacy players? Pujols should go regardless of season, only at the same time, not take a spot away from a more deserving player?

iii:45

Jay Jaffe: Seems reasonable.

3:45	Invitee: Is Votto already a hall of famer?

iii:47

Invitee: is this non a decisive demonstration of position players being more valuable than relievers? tin't imagine ever wanting a ~iv win position player over someone who will pitch 60 innings

3:49

Jay Jaffe: if yous're talking about Pollock, he hasn't reached 4.0 War since 2015, concluding year was his beginning fourth dimension since then even reaching iii.0 War, and he projects around 2.0. The Dodgers believe they tin make up those ii-three wins in-house between their remaining position players and bullpen. I don't think this proves anything other than two GMs looking at their rosters and trading from surplus.

3:50	Jay Jaffe: ok folks, time for me to telephone call it a twenty-four hour period here. Thanks so much for stopping by! We're six days abroad from Opening Day and I recollect we're gonna make it!

3:51	Due east: Bogaerts was asked and said that he got vaccinated in the off season.

3:51	Jay Jaffe: noted

Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe State of war Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball game Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring invitee on MLB Network and a fellow member of the BBWAA since 2011. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe.

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-4-1-22/

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